There are five races that will decide the majority. Alaska, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina are the four closest Democratic-held seats, according to the models I wrote about on Monday -- and the ones likely to be the deciding sixth GOP pickup if Republicans win back the Senate. (That assumes wins by Republicans in Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Arkansas and Louisiana.) Republicans look best in Iowa followed by Alaska, Colorado and North Carolina. (Sen. Kay Hagan's remarkable resilience is a whole blog post of its own.) Then there is Kansas Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, who has developed into the GOP's biggest headache in the final stretch of the race. Roberts is in real danger of losing to independent Greg Orman -- especially now that Democrat Chad Taylor has been removed from the ballot. If Republicans win six Democratic seats and lose Kansas -- thus keeping them from the majority -- Roberts will be the most hated man in Republican politics. And rightly so since this race should never have been a race in the first place.
Source: The election is six weeks from today. Here are six things we know about it. - The Washington Post
