Frontloading HQ: 2012 Republican Delegate Allocation series
Mississippi delegate breakdown:
- 40 total delegates
- 25 at-large delegates
- 12 congressional district delegates
- 3 automatic delegates
At-large allocation: The 25 at-large delegates are all allocated to the winner of the statewide vote if that candidate receives a majority of the vote. If no candidate clears the 50% barrier, then the allocation is proportional to those candidates who have received over 15% of the vote.
Notes: As was/will be the case in Alabama, this means that a close race -- like the tight three way race that the polling in the state seems to indicate -- yields a near even allocation of at-large delegates among Gingrich, Romney and Santorum. Again, this would greatly resemble what we witnessed in Oklahoma.
Congressional district allocation: The three congressional district delegates per each of the four Mississippi districts are also allocated winner-take-all if one candidate is able to garner a majority of the vote. Now, if no candidate clears the 50% mark is where this gets interesting -- especially in light of a potentially tight three way race. With no one over the majority point and with three candidates likely over the 15% threshold, none of the three candidates is going to be mathematically able to gain enough separation to round up to more than one delegate. In a race with three candidates over 15% within any one of the congressional districts, one candidate would have to get over half of the vote to even round up to two delegates. And of course, at that level, a candidate would receive all three delegates. In all likelihood, a candidate will have to clear the 20% mark within a congressional district to be able to round up to one full delegate; particularly if that candidate is in third place.
