Battleground Poll: Obama vulnerable

Those fresh numbers highlight the circumstance that will determine who wins next year’s election: The more that the 2012 contest is a referendum on Obama’s job performance, the more likely he is to lose.

See full poll results.

“Generic Republicans never flip-flopped on a position and never had any problems in their personal life,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who helped conduct the bipartisan poll. “When it’s a choice, we’re in a much, much stronger position.”

The president’s job approval rating is at 44 percent, with a dangerously high 51 percent disapproval. Of those who disapprove, 41 percent say they feel strongly. Worse, in a sample of the 19 states that could swing to either party next year, Obama’s job approval fell to 40 percent and his disapproval increased to 57 percent. These numbers are on par with Obama’s standing on the eve of last year’s Democratic shellacking in the midterm elections.