"Which legislative and congressional politicians will survive, however, is very much up in the air.
An entirely new set of districts will be drawn up by an independent redistricting commission – or the courts, if the commission falters – which means politicians are no longer choosing their own voters.
The lines of 53 congressional districts and 120 legislative districts are bound to change a lot. Population shifts will mean fewer districts along the coast and more inland. Latinos will probably gain at the expense of white politicians.
Incumbent legislators and congressional members could find themselves thrown together in new districts. A high number of retirements is likely, especially among congressional incumbents of both parties.
Matt Rexroad, a Yolo County supervisor and Republican political consultant, has pointed out in an Internet analysis the high number of California congressional members who are 65 or older and might not want to risk re-election in newly drawn districts."
State's political deck is full of wild cards for 2012
Sacramento Bee:
