Nevada has now carved out its spot on the calendar and has forced Gardner's hand. The choices facing New Hampshire: hold a non-Tuesday primary -- likely on January 7 -- or move to the next available Tuesday slot seven or more days before Nevada -- January 3. The former allows Iowa to slide into a January 2 or 3 date while the latter forces Iowa into December.
Here's the narrowed choice set originally put forth here:
December 26-30 or January 2 or 3: IowaFHQ has talked a great deal about the power Bill Gardner has in New Hampshire concerning the setting of the presidential primary date. He still has that power tonight, but he also has a hugely consequential decision to make now. No, the decision doesn't necessarily affect the candidates or the campaign overall, but depending on the decision, it could threaten the favored position New Hampshire enjoys now in future cycles.
January 3, 7: New Hampshire
January 14: Nevada
Showing posts with label Primary election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Primary election. Show all posts
Nevada's move limits NH primary possibilities -- Christmas in Iowa?
John Stewart Assesses the GOP Primary Calendar
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| Florida's Presidential Primary | ||||
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After all the trouble Florida has caused in previous elections, it has the gall to demand an earlier primary.
Iowa Caucus in December? What Florida on January 31 Means for the Rest of the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar
Now, I know folks are going to run with this January 1 Iowa caucus stuff. FHQ DOES NOT THINK IT WILL END UP THIS WAY. [Perhaps I got my point across.] Iowa on January 1 is shorthand for this may start in December. I'll spare you the caps this time, but I don't think that is likely either. If the only that triggers December contests is New Hampshire's desire to have a seven versus four day buffer between it and the Nevada caucuses, then New Hampshire will relent as it did in 2007 and accept the four day cushion.
The Florida Presidential Primary is Not Currently Scheduled for January 31
The enrolled version of HB 1355 -- the bill that created the PPPDSC -- strikes the reference in the presidential primary law to the last Tuesday in January (see 103.101(1)(b) for the details). And the 2011 Florida Statutes reflect that change (see the same 103.101(1)(b) section).In other words, the Florida primary is completely date-less at this point in the evolution of the 2012 presidential primary calendar and has been since May 19 when the bill was signed into law. The PPPDSC will not be moving the primary back from that last Tuesday in January date. Instead, the members are charged with selecting a date in the window between January 3 and March 6 (for the 2012 cycle).
Frontloading HQ: The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (8/25/11)
The decision by Kansas Republicans to hold March 10 caucuses slightly alters the 2012 presidential primary calendar:
Notes: Check out FHQ's primer on when the remaining states will likely decide on dates.
Download FHQ's calendar for iCal or Outlook or see it on Google Calendar.
[Click to Enlarge]
Reading the Map:
As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Iowa, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.
As always, excellent update on the primary calendar via Frontloading HQ blog.
Romney vs. Perry: How the Numbers (and the Calendar) Stack Up
Interesting numbers break-down from Sean Trende. State-by-state delegate analysis always pleases the geek in me.
"This could prove critical in a drawn-out race. The reason is simple, and yet not well-known. The RNC has provided that states holding primaries before April 1 must allocate delegates proportionately. But after that date, states may opt for winner-take-all primaries, and many of these states have done so. In other words, we could have a situation where a conservative candidate (or a pair of conservative candidates) does well in the first three months, but has to give some delegates to the more moderate candidate. This is similar to what happened to Clinton, who won crucial primary battles late in the game, but couldn’t make much headway in the delegate count because of how these delegates were allocated. So despite winning the majority of primaries, the conservative candidate could end up with only a small lead in delegates over the more moderate candidate. If the moderate candidate then performs well in April or afterward, he could quickly rack up enough delegates to break away and claim the nomination."
RNC rejects tough sanctions on primary calendar
Sacramento Bee:
"The Republican National Committee has rejected a plan to force tougher sanctions on states that jump ahead in the presidential primary calendar.
The measure could have stripped VIP passes and desirable hotel accommodations from states like Arizona and Florida, which are considering late January primary elections. That's a violation of RNC rules, and some Republicans say it would cause chaos in the early voting process.
But the RNC Rules Committee voted at its summer meeting Thursday to postpone action on new sanctions, which came recommended by another panel, until next year. Current rules already strip states in violation of half of their delegates to the party's national convention, which formally selects its presidential nominee."
Prospect of Extended Primary Season Alarms Republican Leaders
Understatement: "... the process of selecting a nominee is dictated by a haphazard set of rules that vary by state."
NYTimes.com:
NYTimes.com:
“If there was ever a calendar that was designed for the nominating battle to go the distance, this is it,” said John Weaver, the chief strategist for the campaign of Jon M. Huntsman Jr., a former governor of Utah. “It could easily go into April and May.”
The unsettled calendar has created anxiety and opportunity for Republican candidates.
For all of the precision that presidential campaigns require, the process of selecting a nominee is dictated by a haphazard set of rules that vary by state. Some states conduct closed primaries (registered Republicans only), and others have open primaries (independents and Democrats can vote, too).
California elections: Legislature takes up bill to return California's 2012 presidential primary to June
latimes.com:
"If the bill is passed and signed into law by Gov. Jerry Brown, who has not taken a position, California would join other cash-strapped states that have decided to forgo the added cost — and any added attention from presidential candidates and the political press corps — by ceding their early spot on the calendar.
In Washington state, officials are talking about canceling their primary, a non-binding 'beauty contest' that does not determine the awarding of delegates. 'Our [budget] cuts are hurting the poor, hurting kids, really damaging education,' said Secretary of State Sam Reed. The estimated savings: $10 million.
Other states canceling their primaries, pushing back the date or weighing those options include Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Montana, New Jersey, Oklahoma and Virginia."
2012 Poll: Obama 39%, Romney 36%
Race 4 2012:
- Barack Obama (D) 39%
- Mitt Romney (R) 36%
- Michael Bloomberg (I) 13%
- Barack Obama (D) 42%
- Sarah Palin (R) 31%
- Michael Bloomberg (I) 18%
Five Paths to the GOP 2012 Nomination
Pajamas Media: "Let’s face it. We are all excited for the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination to start and there’s no shortage of candidates, with 18 making moves towards running according to my list. National polls do not matter at this point, as one victory in Iowa or New Hampshire can catapult a candidate to frontrunner status. More than anything, each candidate must decide where they fit into the primary calendar and where they will make their triumphant stand. And there appears to only be five realistic strategies available."
Competitiveness in national elections does not trickle down to state level
Ballotnews: "77.3% of incumbents faced no primary challenger. Of the 1,133 incumbents who did face a primary, only 95 were defeated by the challenger. Thus, 91.6% of all incumbents who faced a primary opponent won their primary. But, if all 4,985 incumbents who elected to run for re-election are counted, only 1.9% of incumbents did not make it to the general election."
Legislative candidate seeks ballot ruling from high court
Postbulletin.com: Last week, Fillmore County Auditor and Treasurer Shirl Boelter sent a letter to all of the candidates saying that she had determined that Hein had failed to get the 500 voter signatures required to file for office. State law requires that non-major party candidates gather the signatures since independent candidates are not subject to the primary election. But Boelter said all of the general election ballots had already been printed in Fillmore and Houston counties and she did not believe she had the authority to take Hein's name off the ballot. Hein said he did not know about the requirement when he filed for office.
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